http://www.richcollegeboy.com/doubling-stocks
In the early years of the market fundamental analysis (alpha, beta, PE ratios etc.) was king and trading was considered much like gambling. In the past few decades the tides have begun to turn and technical analysis has become a major tool for active traders and is used heavily by the large trading and hedge fund companies. And trust me they wouldn't be doing it if it didn't work.
One of the major reasons for the rise of technical analysis as the primary tool for traders is the easy access to computing resources. It used to be that performing technical analysis was a manual process of studying charts, drawing trend lines and looking for patterns. Then the technical analyst would crunch the numbers and make a decision about the stock in question. Sure this approach, being based on probabilities derived from historical data, is much less subjective than typical fundamental analysis techniques, but it was a very time consuming process meaning only a limited number of stocks could be analyzed in a reasonable period of time.
With automated trading systems, such as Marl the stock picking robot, we're able analyze literally thousands of stocks in a short period of time. More importantly, the sophistication of software algorithms these days allow these systems to actually improve their performance the more they are used. They actually feed their own performance records back into itself so it can learn from its own mistakes, and it does all this at lightning speed! Where a skilled technical analyst might be able to sufficiently analyze a few dozen charts in an afternoon, that same analyst programming his very same rules of analysis in to a computer will be able to analyze thousands of stocks in that same afternoon. Like I said, it's a numbers game. Marl isn't doing anything the human technical analyst can't do; it just does it much faster. Since an automated trading system is capable of analyzing such a large number of stocks in a short period of time it's able to be far more selective in its criteria for recommending a stock, which in turn means it has a much higher probability of uncovering profitable trades.
Consider this
Marl can analyze 7 stock charts per second
Marl can process 1,986,832 mathematical calculations per second
Feedback loop allows Marl to constantly be perfecting its trading formula
Marl can be extremely selective
I would never suggest that any automated trading system can pick winners all the time. But it doesn't have to. It simply needs to give us an edge with its ability to analyze massive amounts of data that we simply couldn't do ourselves.
You might wonder, is this edge enough to make a difference? Think about this; the rules of casino games are designed such that the house has a very slight advantage over the player. In blackjack the edge for the casino is only about 2%. This means the casino has a positive expectation of 2%. But this two percent is enough to make a killing for these casinos! You don't think the luxury of Las Vegas was built on hotel room fees and restaurant tabs do you? The edge in the casino is kept small so the player wins "almost" as often as they lose (providing they know how to play properly), but in the long run if they keep playing the house will end up with their money. The casino knows that with proper money management that 2% can turn into a fortune in a very short period of time.
And so it is with trading. If we can achieve even a small edge such that our trading system has a positive expectation then, through proper risk and money management, we can parlay our bankroll into a fortune.
With Marl, and the Doubling Stocks newsletter, mining the market data for profitable opportunities I can focus my energy on money and risk management, which every successful trader knows is the cornerstone of success in the markets.
http://www.richcollegeboy.com/doubling-stocks
Rating: User: taskzeno 2008-02-20T06:36:32.463Z
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